“Wolf Warrior” Diplomacy- Tensions in the South China Sea

In a surprising twist, China, which appeared to have toned down its assertive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, made a forceful comeback on Monday, condemning the alleged illegal entry of a US warship into waters claimed by China in the South China Sea. The incident, involving the USS Gabrielle Gifford near the Spratly Islands, has sparked fresh concerns about China’s aggressive stance, contrary to recent signs of diplomatic easing with countries like Australia.

China’s Strong Condemnation and Claims China’s military spokesman labeled the US as “the biggest threat to peace and stability” in the South China Sea, vehemently protesting the USS Gifford’s passage near the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands. China accused the US of an “illegal” maritime incursion, stating that the warship had entered waters adjacent to Ren’ai Reef in China’s Nansha Islands without approval. Air Force Col. Tian Junli from China’s Southern Theater Command claimed that the US had disrupted the South China Sea, violated China’s sovereignty, and undermined regional peace and stability.

This escalation comes despite the tribunal ruling, based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), rejecting China’s claims over the so-called Nine-Dash Line. China has consistently disregarded the ruling, maintaining its expansive territorial assertions in the region.

Analysts Skeptical of China’s Diplomatic Retreat While some believed that recent developments indicated a shift away from China’s aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, analysts, such as John Blaxland from the Australian National University, argue otherwise. Blaxland contends that China’s reaction to the USS Gifford incident suggests that any talk of a retreat from assertive diplomacy was more symbolic than substantive. He draws parallels with China’s actions following the apparently cordial meeting between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Xi, indicating a potential ratcheting up of pressure in support of disputed claims in the South China Sea.

Blaxland asserts that China’s assertiveness has been counterproductive, alienating potential allies and encouraging fence-sitting nations to lean more towards the US. The latest incident further complicates China’s relations with Pacific neighbors, including the Philippines, Japan, and Vietnam, who have been pushing back against China’s territorial claims.

Divergent Narratives: Chinese vs. International Response Notably, the official English version of China’s statement is less emphatic than its Chinese counterpart, suggesting a potential effort by China to downplay the incident on the international stage. Analysts view this as a tactic to manage the narrative and mitigate negative global reactions.

China’s reaction to the USS Gifford’s passage is seen by some experts, including Malcolm David from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, as an attempt at intimidating language. David notes that while China’s rhetoric is designed to intimidate, it falls short of achieving that goal. The United States conducts its Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in line with international law, despite not being a signatory to UNCLOS.

The Philippines’ Perspective The Philippines, a key player in the South China Sea dispute, recently raised concerns about China’s actions. The Philippine Coast Guard reported that China had massed 135 ships around an area crucial to the UNCLOS ruling. The Philippines’ attempts to assert their claim to the area were met with radio silence from the Chinese vessels.

China’s actions in the South China Sea have raised alarms not only in the US but also among its allies, including Australia. The latter recently conducted its first joint FONOP with the Philippines, signaling a collaborative effort to counter China’s expansive claims.

Future Implications and Regional Stability As tensions rise in the South China Sea, the focus shifts to China’s potential future actions in close proximity to US and allied forces, including Australia. Observers are keenly watching whether China will resort to more provocative measures, both in the air and at sea, as the situation unfolds.

The recent events underscore the complex dynamics at play in the South China Sea, with China’s diplomatic and military posturing influencing regional stability. The international community, particularly nations with strategic interests in the region, will closely monitor developments to assess the impact on geopolitical relations and maritime security.